斯托克代尔悖论

October 14, 2005 on 11:44 am | In 2006 |

这是在yuyu上面看到的，刚好昨晚看了《两代雄兵》，讲的是越战战俘的故事，当然是以美国人的角度，还是好莱坞那一套个人主义文化背景下对英雄的塑造。故事正好发生在希尔顿，斯托克代尔悖论产生的地方。它的大义是：

坚持你一定会成功的信念，同时，要面对现实中最残忍的事实，不论有多大困难，不论它们是什么。

由此我想到一个叫”积极错觉“的理论，就是，一些人通常会夸大自己的能力，认为自己能完成某事而实际上暂时并不能，而进一步研究却发现，与那些认为自己完成不了某事的人相比，这些认为自己能完成的人最后大多数真的成功了。这或许跟我们的生活常识相一致：一个人相信自己在某个领域会有所成就并相应朝这个方向努力至少有成功的可能，而一开始就认为自己在这个领域难有收获并畏首畏尾裹足不前是不可能有所收获的。


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